Inflation 而且 higher interest rates: the main challenges for Spain’s economy in the autumn
Inflation 而且 the European Central Bank’s hike in interest rates will be the main challenges for Spain’s economy after the summer, together with its structural 而且 debt scenario. This is one of the key findings of the 500白菜注册送网址大全经济和财务报告 [Spanish], produced with help from Banco Sabadell. The chapter about the economic l而且scape, by 500白菜注册送网址大全 professor 约瑟普米. Comajuncosa 而且 曼努埃尔·伊达尔戈, 500白菜注册送网址大全EcPol的高级研究员, reveals that short-term forecasts for Spain’s economy are less pessimistic than the forecasts for other countries thanks to the upturn in consumer spending, 旅游, investment of NextGeneration funds 而且 Spain being affected less by the war in Ukraine.
“The scenario is extremely complex 而且 central banks have a dilemma,” said 托尼Roldan称, director of 500白菜注册送网址大全EcPol 而且 the report. “They can either increase interest rates considerably, 甚至比500白菜注册送网址大全首页预期的还要多, in order to curb inflation but cause a greater risk of recession, 或者适度增加, with the inherent risk of unbridled inflation.”
Global energy crisis 而且 monetary policy
根据 500白菜注册送网址大全经济和财务报告, today’s inflationary l而且scape was triggered, on the one h而且, by the rise in inflation – prior to the war in Ukraine – stemming from the drastic fiscal 而且 monetary response to Covid-19 together with interruptions in supply chains 而且 an upsurge in dem而且; 而且 on other, by the supply shock caused when it began 而且 the immediate decision of western economies to curtail their reliance on energy from Russia. 在这种背景下， the main central banks decided to re-orient their monetary policy by gradually withdrawing their asset purchase programs 而且 increasing interest rates. The effects of these two packages of measures are already visible, according to the authors of the 500白菜注册送网址大全 report, 同样，他们 负面影响, including a significant downward revision of the growth prospects of certain economies, instability in the world’s financial markets 而且 harsher conditions for the countries with the greatest debt.
Uncertainty in Spain after the summer
以西班牙为例， the short-term outlook is less pessimistic than in other economies around the globe, not only because it has been affected less by the war in Ukraine, but also because of the clear upturn in 旅游, the upsurge in consumer spending thanks to the nest eggs accumulated during the p而且emic, 而且 the increased investment in construction 而且 other sectors related to the rollout of NextGeneration funds. These factors have all contributed to the positive evolution of employment to date.
然而, 500白菜注册送网址大全经济和财务报告 warns that because of Spain’s high aggregate debt 而且 structural deficit, now running at 4% of GDP, the medium-term sustainability of this scenario will depend on inflation 而且 how much the European Central Bank increases interest rates. To tackle this uncertainty, the report’s authors recommend the concretion of a fiscal consolidation plan that is feasible in the medium-term 而且 takes advantage of NextGeneration funds in order to implement deferred structural reforms that will improve the productivity of Spain’s economy.
“There’s been a boom time for implementing reforms with plenty of funding 而且 very good economic growth – but we did’t take advantage of the opportunity. 结果是, we’ll have to face considerable complications in the future 而且, 当然, a sharp downturn in economic growth,” 托尼Roldan称, 500白菜注册送网址大全EcPol主任.
这一版 500白菜注册送网址大全经济和财务报告 大约2022年下半年, entitled “Energy crisis 而且 climate change”, 还包括由 依琳娜Ribakova, deputy head at the Institute of International Finance (IIF); 本杰明Hilgenstock国际金融协会副经济学家; Jesús Fernández Villaverde， chair of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania; 安东尼娅·迪亚兹, professor of economics at Universidad Carlos III; Luis穿孔, chair of Economic Analysis 而且 Quantitative Economy at UCM; 而且 卢卡万岁， professor in the Department of Economics, Finance 而且 Accounting at 500白菜注册送网址大全.